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2011 Governor · WV

Mellman Group · fieldwork ended 2011-09-18 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 36%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.55% · Republican 47.05%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 36 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.555 − 47.049 = 2.506
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (2.506) = 7.494
  4. Absolute miss = |7.494| = 7.494

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63953, race ID 1273 (538 database).