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2003 Governor · MS

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2003-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.81% · Republican 52.59%

R+6.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.813 − 52.589 = -6.776
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-6.776) = 2.777
  4. Absolute miss = |2.777| = 2.777

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63949, race ID 1379 (538 database).