2003 Governor · LA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2003-11-05 (10 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 48%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.95% · Republican 48.05%
D+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 48 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 51.949 − 48.051 = 3.898
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (3.898) = -8.898
- Absolute miss = |-8.898| = 8.898
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.9 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63948, race ID 1378 (538 database).