2001 Governor · VA
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2001-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 633 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.16% · Republican 47.02%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.163 − 47.025 = 5.138
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (5.138) = 0.862
- Absolute miss = |0.862| = 0.862
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63946, race ID 1418 (538 database).