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2013 Governor · VA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2013-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 874 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 40%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 40 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.519) = -0.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.518| = 0.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63925, race ID 1257 (538 database).