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2013 Governor · VA

Clout Research · fieldwork ended 2013-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 640 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 40%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 40 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.519) = -1.518
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.518| = 1.518

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63920, race ID 1257 (538 database).