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2010 House · TX-17

ccAdvertising · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 2,085 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 47%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.57% · Republican 61.80%

R+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 47 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.572 − 61.802 = -25.230
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-25.230) = 14.230
  4. Absolute miss = |14.230| = 14.230

The poll overstated the Democrat by 14.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63917, race ID 4844 (538 database).