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2001 Governor · NJ

CBS News/The New York Times · fieldwork ended 2001-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 760 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 36%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.43% · Republican 41.67%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 36 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.433 − 41.675 = 14.758
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (14.758) = -1.758
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.758| = 1.758

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63916, race ID 1417 (538 database).