2013 Governor · VA
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2013-10-27 (9 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 37%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.74% · Republican 45.22%
D+2.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 37 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 47.736 − 45.217 = 2.519
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (2.519) = 3.482
- Absolute miss = |3.482| = 3.482
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63902, race ID 1257 (538 database).