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2012 Senate · VA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2012-10-27 (10 days before the election) · 827 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 46.7% · Republican 45.1%

D+1.6

The certified result

Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.7 − 45.1 = 1.60
  2. Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
  3. Signed miss = 1.60 − (5.905) = -4.305
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.305| = 4.305

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63880, race ID 1501 (538 database).