2000 President · MI
Mitchell Research & Communications · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 42%
even
The certified result
Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%
D+5.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.134) = -5.134
- Absolute miss = |-5.134| = 5.134
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6388, race ID 828 (538 database).