2000 President · national
Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 818 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 49%
R+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%
D+0.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 49 = -8.00
- Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
- Signed miss = -8.00 − (0.492) = -8.492
- Absolute miss = |-8.492| = 8.492
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63878, race ID 40 (538 database).