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2000 House · MT-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 628 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 46%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.28% · Republican 51.50%

R+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 46 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.276 − 51.500 = -5.224
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-5.224) = 2.224
  4. Absolute miss = |2.224| = 2.224

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6387, race ID 2513 (538 database).