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2004 President · WV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 584 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.6% · Republican 50.1%

R+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 43.20% · Republican 56.06%

R+12.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.6 − 50.1 = -4.50
  2. Actual margin = 43.200 − 56.064 = -12.864
  3. Signed miss = -4.50 − (-12.864) = 8.364
  4. Absolute miss = |8.364| = 8.364

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63869, race ID 804 (538 database).