Skip to content

2004 President · PA

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,402 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.8% · Republican 46.1%

D+5.7

The certified result

Democrat 50.92% · Republican 48.42%

D+2.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.8 − 46.1 = 5.70
  2. Actual margin = 50.924 − 48.424 = 2.500
  3. Signed miss = 5.70 − (2.500) = 3.200
  4. Absolute miss = |3.200| = 3.200

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63860, race ID 793 (538 database).