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2000 President · MO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%

R+3.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.339) = 2.339
  4. Absolute miss = |2.339| = 2.339

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6386, race ID 830 (538 database).