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2000 Senate · MO

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.47% · Republican 48.39%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.467 − 48.393 = 2.074
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (2.074) = -2.073
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.073| = 2.073

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6386, race ID 1697 (538 database).