Skip to content

2004 President · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 516 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45.9% · Republican 49.8%

R+3.9

The certified result

Democrat 47.88% · Republican 50.47%

R+2.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.9 − 49.8 = -3.90
  2. Actual margin = 47.878 − 50.470 = -2.592
  3. Signed miss = -3.90 − (-2.592) = -1.308
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.308| = 1.308

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63854, race ID 788 (538 database).