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2004 President · NM

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 526 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53.6% · Republican 44.1%

D+9.5

The certified result

Democrat 49.05% · Republican 49.84%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53.6 − 44.1 = 9.50
  2. Actual margin = 49.047 − 49.838 = -0.791
  3. Signed miss = 9.50 − (-0.791) = 10.292
  4. Absolute miss = |10.292| = 10.292

The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63852, race ID 787 (538 database).