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2004 President · NH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 631 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.2% · Republican 45.7%

D+4.5

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.2 − 45.7 = 4.50
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = 4.50 − (1.368) = 3.132
  4. Absolute miss = |3.132| = 3.132

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63850, race ID 785 (538 database).