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2004 President · NH

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 510 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51.1% · Republican 46%

D+5.1

The certified result

Democrat 50.24% · Republican 48.87%

D+1.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51.1 − 46 = 5.10
  2. Actual margin = 50.242 − 48.874 = 1.368
  3. Signed miss = 5.10 − (1.368) = 3.732
  4. Absolute miss = |3.732| = 3.732

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63849, race ID 785 (538 database).