Skip to content

2004 President · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,316 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.2% · Republican 51.4%

R+4.2

The certified result

Democrat 46.10% · Republican 53.30%

R+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.2 − 51.4 = -4.20
  2. Actual margin = 46.100 − 53.296 = -7.196
  3. Signed miss = -4.20 − (-7.196) = 2.996
  4. Absolute miss = |2.996| = 2.996

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63847, race ID 779 (538 database).