Skip to content

2004 President · MO

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,066 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 47.6% · Republican 50.7%

R+3.1

The certified result

Democrat 46.10% · Republican 53.30%

R+7.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.6 − 50.7 = -3.10
  2. Actual margin = 46.100 − 53.296 = -7.196
  3. Signed miss = -3.10 − (-7.196) = 4.096
  4. Absolute miss = |4.096| = 4.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63845, race ID 779 (538 database).