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2004 President · MI

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,228 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 52.6% · Republican 45.9%

D+6.7

The certified result

Democrat 51.23% · Republican 47.81%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.6 − 45.9 = 6.70
  2. Actual margin = 51.231 − 47.812 = 3.419
  3. Signed miss = 6.70 − (3.419) = 3.281
  4. Absolute miss = |3.281| = 3.281

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63842, race ID 777 (538 database).