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2000 Senate · NJ

Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 432 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 39%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 39 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (3.017) = 6.983
  4. Absolute miss = |6.983| = 6.983

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6383, race ID 1701 (538 database).