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2008 President · NV

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 601 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 50.7% · Republican 42.9%

D+7.8

The certified result

Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.7 − 42.9 = 7.80
  2. Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
  3. Signed miss = 7.80 − (12.493) = -4.693
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.693| = 4.693

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63820, race ID 737 (538 database).