Skip to content

2008 President · IN

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43.9% · Republican 49.1%

R+5.2

The certified result

Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.9 − 49.1 = -5.20
  2. Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
  3. Signed miss = -5.20 − (1.032) = -6.232
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.232| = 6.232

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63817, race ID 719 (538 database).