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2013 Senate · MA

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2013-06-08 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 41%

D+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 41 = 7.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 7.00 − (10.199) = -3.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.199| = 3.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63812, race ID 1472 (538 database).