2007 Governor · KY
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2007-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 562 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 36%
D+24.0
The certified result
Democrat 58.71% · Republican 41.29%
D+17.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 36 = 24.00
- Actual margin = 58.707 − 41.293 = 17.414
- Signed miss = 24.00 − (17.414) = 6.586
- Absolute miss = |6.586| = 6.586
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63782, race ID 1324 (538 database).