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2007 Governor · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2007-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 572 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 38%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.71% · Republican 41.29%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 38 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.707 − 41.293 = 17.414
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (17.414) = 2.586
  4. Absolute miss = |2.586| = 2.586

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63781, race ID 1324 (538 database).