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2005 Governor · NJ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2005-10-23 (16 days before the election) · 525 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 41%

D+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.02%

D+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 41 = 9.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.472 − 43.023 = 10.449
  3. Signed miss = 9.00 − (10.449) = -1.448
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.448| = 1.448

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63779, race ID 1363 (538 database).