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2002 Senate · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 705 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 66%

R+35.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.33% · Republican 64.67%

R+29.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 66 = -35.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.325 − 64.675 = -29.350
  3. Signed miss = -35.00 − (-29.350) = -5.650
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.650| = 5.650

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63775, race ID 1658 (538 database).