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2000 President · VA

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 627 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 48%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.44% · Republican 52.47%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 48 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.436 − 52.474 = -8.038
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-8.038) = 1.038
  4. Absolute miss = |1.038| = 1.038

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6377, race ID 851 (538 database).