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2003 Governor · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2003-10-03 (4 days before the election) · 294 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 49%

R+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.47% · Republican 48.58%

R+17.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 49 = -20.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.473 − 48.583 = -17.110
  3. Signed miss = -20.00 − (-17.110) = -2.890
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.890| = 2.890

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63767, race ID 1380 (538 database).