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2001 Governor · NJ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2001-11-02 (4 days before the election) · 800 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 41%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.43% · Republican 41.67%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 41 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.433 − 41.675 = 14.758
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (14.758) = -0.758
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.758| = 0.758

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63763, race ID 1417 (538 database).