Skip to content

2007 Governor · KY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2007-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 39%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.71% · Republican 41.29%

D+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.707 − 41.293 = 17.414
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (17.414) = -2.414
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.414| = 2.414

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63754, race ID 1324 (538 database).