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2000 President · MI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.28% · Republican 46.15%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.280 − 46.146 = 5.134
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (5.134) = -7.134
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.134| = 7.134

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63751, race ID 828 (538 database).