2000 Senate · FL
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.04% · Republican 46.19%
D+4.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 51.044 − 46.192 = 4.852
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (4.852) = 2.149
- Absolute miss = |2.149| = 2.149
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63750, race ID 1687 (538 database).