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2000 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 56%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 56 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-24.061) = 5.061
  4. Absolute miss = |5.061| = 5.061

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63748, race ID 1705 (538 database).