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2000 President · KY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 58%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 56.51%

R+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 58 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.378 − 56.506 = -15.128
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-15.128) = -2.872
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.872| = 2.872

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63747, race ID 823 (538 database).