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2000 President · NY

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 36%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 36 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (24.189) = -5.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.189| = 5.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63746, race ID 840 (538 database).