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2000 Senate · NV

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 55%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.69% · Republican 55.09%

R+15.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 55 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.693 − 55.092 = -15.399
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-15.399) = -0.602
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.602| = 0.602

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63745, race ID 1700 (538 database).