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2000 President · CA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 530 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 43%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.45% · Republican 41.65%

D+11.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 43 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.450 − 41.651 = 11.799
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (11.799) = -5.798
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.798| = 5.798

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63744, race ID 810 (538 database).