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2000 President · RI

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 31%

D+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 60.99% · Republican 31.91%

D+29.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 31 = 26.00
  2. Actual margin = 60.988 − 31.912 = 29.076
  3. Signed miss = 26.00 − (29.076) = -3.076
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.076| = 3.076

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63742, race ID 845 (538 database).