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2000 President · OR

DHM Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 44%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.96% · Republican 46.52%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 44 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.960 − 46.519 = 0.441
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (0.441) = 0.559
  4. Absolute miss = |0.559| = 0.559

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6374, race ID 843 (538 database).