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2000 President · IA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 46%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.54% · Republican 48.22%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 46 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.536 − 48.221 = 0.315
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.315) = -0.315
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.315| = 0.315

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63739, race ID 818 (538 database).