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2004 President · national

Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%

R+2.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.443) = -1.556
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.556| = 1.556

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63737, race ID 39 (538 database).