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2000 President · AZ

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 510 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.73% · Republican 51.02%

R+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.735 − 51.021 = -6.286
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-6.286) = -3.713
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.713| = 3.713

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63734, race ID 809 (538 database).