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2000 President · CO

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.39% · Republican 50.75%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.394 − 50.750 = -8.356
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-8.356) = -4.643
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.643| = 4.643

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63731, race ID 811 (538 database).