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2000 President · SC

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 54%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.90% · Republican 56.86%

R+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 54 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.902 − 56.860 = -15.958
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-15.958) = 2.959
  4. Absolute miss = |2.959| = 2.959

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63730, race ID 846 (538 database).